Forecast Last Updated at Friday, July 4, 2008 at 6:26AM

Natural Fireworks Coming

We hope you have a Great Fourth of July. Amid the celebrations, activities, events and vacations, take time to remember the sacrifices that have been and are being made.
Today will bring a marked change in humidity levels. We can expect more clouds and more a more sticky feel by late this afternoon. Isolated to scattered thundershowers are expected late today and overnight. Most firework shows will go on as schedule but a few interruptions are possible. Don't cancel your outdoor plans today but do keep an eye to the sky. The trend toward more thundershower continues into the weekend. We have good chances for thundershowers Saturday and Sunday (more Saturday than Sunday). Beyond the weekend, humid conditions and scattered PM thunder will be the domain theme.

The 2009 Ray's Weather Calendar Photo Contest is underway. It will run through July 31 with winners to be chosen by the middle of August. "Hit me with your best shot!" See our photo contest page for details and "fire away".

Friday Hi: 80 Lo: 66 Lots of clouds; An afternoon or nighttime t-shower possible; SW wind 5-10 mph becoming light at night

Saturday Hi: 77 Lo: 65 Mostly cloudy; T-storms especially in the PM; SSW wind 5-10 mph

Sunday Hi: 78 Lo: 65 Mostly cloudy; T-showers especially in the PM; Light South wind

Monday Hi: 80 Lo: 66 Partly to mostly cloudy; Scattered PM t-showers

Tuesday Hi: 80 Lo: 67 Mostly cloudy; Scattered PM t-showers

Further Out

Wednesday - Mostly cloudy; Scattered PM t-showers; High in the upper 70s; Low in the upper 60s
Thursday - Becoming cloudy; Good chance of t-showers especially in the PM; High in the upper 70s; Low in the upper 60s

Forecast Discussion

A front current lies from New England SW to the Ohio River then across to the Texas Panhandle. This front will slide slightly farther south and east but never make it to (or through) the Southern Appalachians. It will wash out just to our northeast Saturday. The center of high pressure has shifted into the Western Atlantic. The result will be a moist flow out of the Gulf of Mexico.

That set-up will increase clouds and humidity today and produce isolated to scattered thundershowers this afternoon and tonight. An isolated strong storm is possible. Most of the area's firework displays will go on as scheduled, but a few interruptions involving "natural fireworks" are possible. Saturday looks wetter with good coverage of thundershowers and a few stronger thunderstorms (heavy downpours, frequent lightning, hail). Sunday, we still have the chance of scattered thundershowers but not as many as Saturday. During the next three days, cumulative rainfall will be 1"+ with isolated much higher amounts. That's welcome news for the drought--just wish the timing could have been different. Rounded to the nearest tenth, the Golf-o-meter ratings for the next three days are: today 3.4, Saturday 2.0, Sunday 2.3. :-)

Monday through Thursday... We will be left in a juicy airmass, but the Ohio Valley front will have lost definition. Overall, Monday appears to have less thundershower activity--more scattered but still in play. The next front will be shunted well to our north; however, as it moves into the upper Ohio Valley, very moist conditions will trigger daily rounds of afternoon and evening thundershowers with total areal coverage gradually increasing each day. Climatologically, July is our second wettest month of the year (behind only March), the first couple weeks of this month will certainly live up to that reputation--good prospects for at least some drought relief.

Tropical Storm Bertha is quite the oddity. She does not live up to the lyrics of "Troglodyte" ("This was a big woman, big... Her name was Bertha, Bertha Butt -- one of the Butt sisters... She looked down on him... And started to crush him."). However, the oddity is that it formed off Cape Verde in early July; "Cape Verde" season typically begins in August. As for impact on the North America, it's hard to imagine that this storm can stay far enough south to have any significant impact; Bermuda would be within the realm of possibility but even that would be well over a week away.

Announcements

RaysWeather.Com continues to grow. We are an "information age" company using the web to broadcast the message but also as a tool for producing the message. RaysWeather.Com (what we call RWC) has evolved from "Ray's hobby in Beautiful Downtown Rutherwood" in 1999 to the most widely read media outlet in NW NC reaching 150,000 to 200,000 people per month and covering the weather from NC/VA line to Asheville and Wolf Laurel. We will continue to grow geographically as well--Roaring Gap has just been added; Waynesville, you're next. The heart of the growth is good data, "local flavor", and THE most reliable forecast.

We recently added our 6th forecaster to the best forecast team ever assembled for this region. It's time for us to introduce "the crew"...

• Dr. Ray Russell is a Computer Science professor at Appalachian State University. His PhD is in Computer Science from Georgia Tech (1989); weather has been a long-time passion. He started posting a "snow forecast" on the university website back in the mid 1990's; this evolved into RaysWeather.Com in 2000. Ray lives in Boone and has taught at Appalachian State since 1991.
• Eric Anderson (RWC's Chief Meteorologist) received his degree in meteorology from the University of North Carolina at Asheville, and is a 15-year veteran of NOAA with experience in forecasting, observation and analysis. A native of western North Carolina, Eric's former tenure in the National Weather Service gave him the opportunity to forecast for areas of the Mid-Atlantic region. His professional interests include upslope flow snow events in the southern Appalachians, as well as cold air damming in the Carolinas.
• Alan Simons, born in Fayetteville NC, has a Bachelor of Science in meteorology and almost 20 years of professional experience that includes forecasting for newspapers, websites, radio, aviation, and the military. He first became interested in weather in North Carolina, and RWC takes him back home after a variety of duty stations, from New York to Hawaii. Alan's been with the RWC team since 2003.
• Tim Kirby joined Ray's Weather Center in October 2004 and lives in his hometown of Fries, VA (pronounced Freeze). The folks from this small Grayson County town say "it's freeze in winter and fries in summer". He has a Bachelor of Science degree in Meteorology from NC State University. While at NC State, he was president of the NCSU Student Chapter of the American Meteorological Society. Before joining RWC, Tim worked for the National Weather Service for ten years in Raleigh, Chattanooga and Morristown, Tennessee. Tim has always loved the challenge of forecasting and owes his dedication to a childhood fascination of snow (no school!).
• Harold Alston is a N.C. native with Bachelor of Science degrees from both App State (Broadcast Communications) and UNC-Asheville (Meteorology). He has 30 years experience tracking and forecasting NC weather including 15 years experience for media outlets. Nailing down Appalachian wedges & wintry possibilities are his areas of expertise with a lifetime of N.C. weather experiences to reference.
• Jeff Cox, a native of Asheville, is the latest addition to the RWC team. He earned a Bachelor of Sciences in Atmospheric Sciences from UNC-Asheville. At UNC-A, he was the lead forecaster for the school's Weather Forecast Line, campus Radio Station, "The Blue Echo" and the campus newspaper, "The Blue Banner." Jeff has experience as a meteorologist in both television and radio. He spent over 2 years in Macon, GA, as the chief meteorologist at WGXA FOX-24. He also has experience as a radio broadcast meteorologist for The Weather Channel in Atlanta, Georgia.